Kelly Criterion Calculator
Kelly criterion bet sizing: how much of your bankroll to stake from the odds and your win chance, with fractional Kelly for safety.
The picks behind the math
LineScout gives the chance each NFL bet hits, the best price across 7 books, and a record graded in public. In beta: the first 100 sign-ups get Pro free.
Get LineScout freeWhat the Kelly criterion does
It sizes a bet by how big your edge is: stake = (b × p − q) ÷ b, where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p is your win chance and q is 1 − p. No edge means no bet.
Why most bettors use a fraction
Full Kelly assumes your win chance is exactly right. It never is, and over-betting hurts far more than under-betting, so quarter or half Kelly is the usual choice. LineScout's slip suggests a quarter-Kelly stake capped at 2% of your bankroll.
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